On October 6th, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the Global Manufacturing PMI for September 2024 was 48.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and has been hovering around 49% for three consecutive months. Regionally, the Asian Manufacturing PMI ended its two-month decline, slightly increased compared to the previous month, and remained above 50%; the African Manufacturing PMI increased compared to the previous month, rising above 50%; the American Manufacturing PMI slightly increased compared to the previous month, but remained below 50%; the European Manufacturing PMI decreased compared to the previous month, and continued to be below 50%.

Considering the comprehensive index changes, the recovery of global manufacturing has slightly decreased compared to the previous month, and the overall recovery strength still needs to be improved. Driven by the positive recovery of China's economy, Asian manufacturing continues to be the stabilizer for the global economic recovery. The recovery strength of African manufacturing has increased, but its stability still needs to be observed. The weak operation trend of American and European manufacturing has not changed.

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As the monetary policies of the world's major countries tend to be more accommodating and inflationary pressures ease, the upward momentum for economic recovery is accumulating, and the forecasts of major global institutions are also becoming more optimistic. Recently, the latest report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised the economic growth expectation for 2024 from 3.1% to 3.2%, and believes that the global economy is in a stage of stabilization. The World Trade Organization's "Goods Trade Barometer" shows that the global goods trade prosperity index is 103, higher than the benchmark of 100. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there is still room and reason for the monetary policies of the world's major countries to continue to be accommodative, and fiscal policies are also expected to continue to exert force, and the global economy is expected to recover positively. A more open and balanced global cooperation environment is an important guarantee for the global economy to accelerate the pace of recovery.

The European manufacturing industry is weak and declining, and the PMI has decreased. In September 2024, the European Manufacturing PMI was 47.3%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, falling below 48%. Looking at the main countries, the UK Manufacturing PMI decreased compared to the previous month, but remained above 51%; the Spanish Manufacturing PMI increased significantly compared to the previous month, rising to 53%; the French Manufacturing PMI increased slightly compared to the previous month, but remained below 45%; the German and Italian Manufacturing PMIs both decreased by more than 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, both below 50%, and the German Manufacturing PMI has already fallen to around 40%.

Looking at the trend of the European Manufacturing PMI, the foundation of the European economic recovery is not solid, and the risk of decline still exists. The European economy still faces the dual pressures of geopolitical conflicts and insufficient demand within the region. The economic sentiment index in the eurozone in September was 96.2, lower than the previous month's 96.6. European Central Bank President Lagarde believes that the European economic recovery is facing resistance. To alleviate the downward pressure on the economy, the European Central Bank has lowered interest rates twice in a row this year. In October, there is still a high probability that the European Central Bank will continue to lower interest rates. Looking at inflationary pressures, in September, the eurozone CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and the CPI year-on-year was 1.8%, also lower than the previous month's 2.2%, falling below the European Central Bank's 2% target, indicating that the inflationary pressure in the eurozone has eased, providing support for the European Central Bank to continue lowering interest rates.

The American manufacturing industry has not changed its weak operation, and the PMI has slightly increased. In September 2024, the American Manufacturing PMI was 47.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but has been below 48% for three consecutive months, indicating that the weak operation trend of the American manufacturing industry has not changed. The main country data shows that the Manufacturing PMIs of Brazil and Canada increased to varying degrees compared to the previous month, both above 50%; the US manufacturing was the same as the previous month, continuing to be below 50%; the Mexican Manufacturing PMI decreased compared to the previous month, continuing to be below 50%.

The ISM report shows that in September, the US Manufacturing PMI was 47.2%, the same as the previous month, and has been below 48% for three consecutive months. The changes in the sub-indices show that the manufacturing production index and the new order index both increased to varying degrees compared to the previous month, but both remained below 50%, indicating that the downward pressure on the supply and demand of US manufacturing has eased compared to the previous month, but the weak trend has not changed.The U.S. manufacturing industry continues to operate weakly, which implies that the risk of a U.S. economic recession has not been completely eliminated even after the Federal Reserve decided to start lowering interest rates. Recently, the Bloomberg Economics Institute forecasted that there is a 70% chance that the U.S. economy has already entered or is about to enter a recession. U.S. consumer confidence has also shown signs of weakening. Data recently released by the Conference Board shows that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell by 6.9 points to 98.7 in September, marking the largest decline since August 2021. Against this backdrop, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy becomes more pronounced. Recent inflation-related data also supports the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for August has slowed to 2.2% year-on-year, the lowest level since March 2021. In September, the rise in U.S. non-farm employment data did not change the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates, but there was some adjustment in the expected magnitude. The U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 254,000 people in September, exceeding the market's expectation of 150,000 people and the revised 159,000 people from the previous month. Based on the data changes, Bank of America adjusted its expectation for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November from 50 basis points to 25 basis points.

African manufacturing has accelerated its recovery compared to the previous month, with the PMI rising above 50%.

In September 2024, the African manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Looking at the main countries, the rapid recovery of South African manufacturing is the main factor influencing the acceleration of African manufacturing's recovery compared to the previous month. South Africa's manufacturing PMI rose from around 43% last month to over 52%; Nigeria's manufacturing PMI fluctuated slightly, remaining slightly below 50% for two consecutive months; Egypt's manufacturing decreased compared to the previous month, falling below 50%.

Although African manufacturing has accelerated its recovery compared to the previous month, looking at the monthly trend changes of the PMI, it often fluctuates around the 50% mark, which means that the stability of African manufacturing's recovery still needs to be observed. The potential of the African economy needs to be tapped in a relatively stable political environment, with increased basic investment to achieve sustainable industrial development. The construction of the African Continental Free Trade Area, promoted by the African Union, is accelerating, enhancing the competitiveness of African manufacturing through economies of scale and strengthened regional cooperation. At the same time, artificial intelligence and the digital economy are gradually becoming important support areas for African countries to promote economic development.

Asian manufacturing continues to stabilize, with a slight increase in the PMI.

In September 2024, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.7%, ending the trend of a decline for two consecutive months, and slightly increasing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above 50% for nine consecutive months. Looking at the main countries, China's manufacturing PMI was at 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; India's manufacturing PMI decreased compared to the previous month but remained above 56%; among the main ASEAN countries, the Philippines' manufacturing PMI increased significantly compared to the previous month, rising above 53%; Thailand's manufacturing PMI decreased compared to the previous month but remained above 50%; Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam's manufacturing PMIs each rose or fell compared to the previous month but all remained below 50%; Japan and South Korea's manufacturing PMIs both decreased to varying degrees compared to the previous month and both remained below 50%.

Looking at the index changes, driven by the positive recovery of China's manufacturing industry, the Asian manufacturing PMI continues to maintain stable growth. With the continuous fermentation of China's fiscal and monetary policy effects, in the fourth quarter, China's economic recovery momentum will continue to strengthen, and it is expected to drive the continued enhancement of Asia's economic recovery momentum. The Asian Development Bank recently released a report, believing that Asian developing economies maintained the vitality of economic growth in the first half of 2024, and raised the economic growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, expecting that developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region will grow by 5.0% in 2024, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the 4.9% forecasted in April. At the same time, it is expected that the inflation rate of developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region is likely to further slow down to 2.8%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previously expected 3.2%.