Last week, the international market underwent dramatic changes, with the escalation of the situation in the Middle East driving up oil prices, and the strong performance of the US non-farm report.

In terms of the market, US stocks achieved a four-week winning streak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.09%, the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.10%, and the S&P 500 Index up by 0.22% for the week. The performance of the three major European stock indices was not satisfactory, with the UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.48%, Germany's DAX 30 down by 1.81%, and France's CAC 40 down by 3.21% for the week.

This week offers many points of interest, with the US inflation data for September and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting likely to be the focus, as the pricing for a rate cut in November has seen significant recent fluctuations. In the Eurozone, France is expected to announce its budget for 2025, and the European Central Bank will release the minutes from its meeting. Investors will continue to closely monitor the impact of the situation in the Middle East, as rising oil prices may affect price trends and the stance of central bank policies. The US earnings season will kick off, with the banking sector taking the lead.

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The US earnings season begins

The three-day US port strike came to a temporary halt as both labor and management announced that they had reached a preliminary agreement in negotiations. The International Longshoremen's Association and the US Maritime Alliance stated that they agreed to extend the main contract until January 15, 2025. In addition to easing economic risks, this also alleviates the political pressure on the Democratic government as the November elections approach.

In the coming week, a large number of Federal Reserve officials will deliver routine speeches, with attention to their positions on the economy and monetary policy. At the same time, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting will be released, and it will be important to pay attention to the details of the policy discussions. HSBC stated that the minutes may show that many policymakers prefer a more gradual reduction of 25 basis points, "The minutes of the September meeting should further clarify the deliberations of the Federal Open Market Committee and the potential dual risks of the economy and monetary policy."

In terms of data, the focus may be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, which will be released on the 10th. According to preliminary data from S&P Global PMI, corporate prices rose at the fastest pace in six months. Meanwhile, although the ISM manufacturing survey showed a decline in price costs, the non-manufacturing report confirmed the claim of accelerating price pressures.

At the same time, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer survey for October will be an important reference for assessing the US economy. Other data worth paying attention to includes August trade data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in September, and the number of initial jobless claims, among others.

This week, the new earnings season will begin, with companies worth watching including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines.

Crude oil and goldInternational oil prices have surged, with the Middle East situation escalating, and the market is now awaiting Israel's response to a missile attack on Iran. Among them, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract for nearest delivery rose by 9.09% for the week, trading at $74.38 per barrel, while the Brent crude oil contract for nearest delivery increased by 9.10% for the week, trading at $78.05 per barrel.

Senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, stated in a report, "The possibility of Israel targeting Iran's oil infrastructure would certainly draw global attention and provide a significant energy boost to oil prices. There is a clear potential for upward movement, and if tensions escalate, coupled with the threat of reduced Iranian supply, it should provide further reasons for oil bulls to extend their tactical positions."

International gold prices remain volatile as the market speculates on the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The COMEX gold futures contract for delivery in October rose by 0.06% for the week, trading at $2645.60 per ounce.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September, further easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points at the policy meeting on November 6th. Independent metal trader Tai Wong said, "The short-term decline in gold prices is due to the strong November employment report, which seems likely to lock in the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision at 25 basis points. The revision for last month is also higher, something we haven't seen in months."

However, geopolitical factors may trigger panic buying. Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures, Phillip Streible, said, "If geopolitics come into play over the weekend, gold futures could easily accelerate back to $2700 and threaten historical highs."

The European Central Bank's October rate cut is imminent.

The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its September meeting this week, with the market focusing on any clues that might increase the likelihood of a consecutive rate cut at the policy meeting in two weeks.

Currently, the eurozone money market has fully priced in another rate cut this month. Previous data showed a significant decline in eurozone inflation last month. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also recently stated in a declaration to the European Parliament that the central bank is more confident in the return of the inflation rate to the 2% target and will take this into account at the October meeting.

On the data front, as the pressure of a weak German economy continues, particularly in its important manufacturing sector, Germany's manufacturing orders and industrial production data for August will be closely watched. Germany's September inflation final value will also become an important reference for the eurozone's price indicators.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that interest rates might be lowered if inflation continues to decline, leading to a drop in the pound and UK government bond yields, with speculation that the Bank of England might choose to cut rates consecutively in November and December. However, Huw Pill, the Bank of England's Chief Economist, warned in a subsequent speech that there might be risks in cutting rates too far and too fast, indicating a more gradual quarterly rate cut pace is more likely.After contradictory comments, there is still doubt about the speed at which the Bank of England might cut interest rates. The monthly GDP data for August this week could be crucial, along with the release of industrial and manufacturing productivity and trade data for the month. Data falling short of expectations could increase the credibility of Bailey's remarks and boost expectations for further easing.