During the "Eleventh" holiday period, overseas commodity markets experienced mixed movements.

The most eye-catching of these was the sharp fluctuation in international crude oil prices, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts. WTI crude oil futures prices rose for five consecutive trading days, reaching a high of $75.61 per barrel on October 7; Brent crude oil futures achieved a seven-day increase, with the highest price reaching $79.3 per barrel, with weekly gains exceeding 9%.

Meanwhile, gold and silver, as traditional safe-haven assets, fluctuated at high levels following the release of better-than-expected U.S. employment data, and copper prices also experienced a slight decline.

In addition, the Hong Kong stock market continued its upward momentum during the holiday period. On October 7, the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.6% at 23,099.78 points, setting a new closing high since February 24, 2022. The Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 3.05%.

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Institutional analysts stated that although the mainland stock market was closed during the holiday, public interest in the stock market did not wane. Securities and futures companies are actively providing services such as account opening and reactivating dormant accounts to meet investor needs. Institutions generally expect the A-share market to rally after the holiday, believing that under the dual influence of policy support and restored market confidence, the A-share market is likely to usher in a new round of increases.

The expectation of U.S. interest rate cuts cooled down, and precious metals fluctuated at high levels.

During the "Eleventh" holiday period, the overseas precious metals market fluctuated at high levels overall, with London gold falling by 0.18% for the week and London silver rising by 1.79%.

Macro-wise, the U.S. September employment data was strong and exceeded expectations across the board. The data showed that the U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 254,000 people in September, the largest increase in six months, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.

Xia Yingying, the director of non-ferrous metals at Nanhua Futures, analyzed to First Financial that under the strong U.S. non-farm employment report, the U.S. economy's "soft landing" trade heated up, and the expectation for the interest rate cut in November converged towards 25 basis points, with the expectation of a rate cut within the year also significantly cooling down. Coupled with the hawkish speeches of Federal Reserve officials, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields both rebounded significantly, exerting certain pressure on precious metals, especially gold. However, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East still benefits precious metals in a phased manner.

Since the third quarter, investment demand for gold and silver in the U.S. market has generally improved, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings increasing by 4.32 tons to 876.26 tons per week; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 127.7 tons to 14,508.6 tons per week.Looking ahead, HuaAn Fund believes that with the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, the market expects the actual interest rates in the United States to decline, which is conducive to the rise in gold prices. At the same time, under the influence of multiple factors such as the global trend of "de-dollarization," excessive issuance of credit money, and economic environment, gold still has allocation value at present.

Crude oil prices soar, and the polyester industry chain bears the cost pressure.

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has brought significant fluctuations to the crude oil market. On the supply side, OPEC+ decided at its meeting on October 2nd to maintain its oil production policy unchanged, that is, starting from December, and gradually increasing production by about 200,000 barrels per day over the following year. However, this decision did not calm the market's nervous mood, and crude oil prices rose significantly during the holiday period.

On the demand side, Wuchan Zhongda Futures analysis pointed out that the fourth quarter is usually the maintenance season for refineries, and from September to October this year, the loss of refinery maintenance has increased, coupled with the decline in refinery profits, it is expected that the maintenance intensity in the fall may be higher than in previous years. In addition, the weakening of manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States further strengthened the market's concerns about insufficient demand.

The sharp rise in crude oil prices has directly pushed up the cost end of the polyester industry chain. Yide Futures analysis stated that Brent crude oil rose by 7.5% to $78.14 compared to the holiday, and the price of PX (paraxylene) also rose by $24 to $923 compared to the holiday. According to the current PX price and the PTA processing difference of 330 yuan/ton, the corresponding PTA spot price is about 5270 yuan, and the PX spot price is about 7540 yuan.

Yide Futures also analyzed that in the middle and upper part of September, it was the peak season for the downstream of polyester, but the decline in raw material prices disrupted the downstream procurement rhythm, leading to weak demand. However, with the interest rate cut in the United States and a series of favorable policies introduced domestically, the commodity market has risen sharply, and downstream procurement has also shown signs of recovery. The production and sales of polyester filament have increased, and inventory has decreased.

Looking forward to the post-holiday period, institutional personnel believe that the crude oil market is expected to maintain a situation of being strong domestically and weak externally, and the domestic policy will continue to boost demand expectations, with domestic oil prices expected to be strong. The impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. non-farm data will increase the volatility of the crude oil market.

Wuchan Zhongda Futures analysis pointed out that the official start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle means that the economy is weakening. In the early stage of interest rate cuts, crude oil volatility increases, and then enters a more coherent trend. In the fourth quarter, the market is more concerned about the pace and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts, and key data such as non-farm employment before the interest rate meeting will affect the market's expectations of whether the economy is in recession.